{"id":11020,"date":"2026-07-14T08:15:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-14T08:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/?p=11020"},"modified":"2026-07-14T08:15:00","modified_gmt":"2026-07-14T08:15:00","slug":"shrinking-budgets-fewer-students","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/?p=11020","title":{"rendered":"Shrinking Budgets, Fewer Students"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-cmp-src=\"\/content\/rand\/pubs\/research_reports\/RRA4737-4\/jcr:content\/par\/product\/par-research-brief\/imagewithclass.fit.888x0.jpeg\/1783948735614.jpeg\" id=\"image-d83694f578\" data-cmp-hook-image=\"imageV3\" class=\"cmp-image photo\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/content\/rand\/pubs\/research_reports\/RRA4737-4\/_jcr_content\/par\/product\/par-research-brief\/imagewithclass.fit.888x0.jpeg\/1783948735614.jpeg\" width=\"888\" height=\"499\" alt=\"A teacher is using her laptop at her desk while group of students are leaving the classroom in blurred motion.\" \/>\n<div class=\"photo-text\">\n<div>\n<p class=\"credit\">Photo by skynesher\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"key-findings-box\">\n<h2 id=\"key-takeaways-\">Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Budget shortfalls have become the top challenge U.S. public school district leaders are facing in 2026, with 54 percent of survey respondents ranking it in their top three concerns\u2014up from 33 percent in 2025.<\/li>\n<li>Declining enrollment is also increasingly a concern among survey respondents, especially for leaders in rural districts.<\/li>\n<li>Interviewed leaders pointed to the loss of federal <abbr title=\"coronavirus disease 2019\">COVID-19<\/abbr> relief funds, rising costs, and state and local revenues that have not kept pace as the primary drivers of budget shortfalls.<\/li>\n<li>Leaders indicated that budget cuts have worsened other challenges in their districts, such as ensuring adequate staffing and improving reading and math achievement.<\/li>\n<li>To increase enrollment, school districts are competing for students: About 40 percent of survey respondents said that their districts are considering marketing campaigns, 33 percent are considering expanding pre-kindergarten (pre-K) services, and a similar share are considering offering new extracurriculars (e.g., sports, out-of-school programs). <\/li>\n<li>In the face of continued enrollment decline, many public school districts will need support both to plan for long-term downsizing and to identify and invest in the services that can help them better attract and retain families.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"first-letter\">Public school districts nationwide are navigating compounding challenges that are forcing hard decisions and placing growing pressure on leaders to adapt. In our spring 2026 American School District Panel (ASDP) survey data, we observe major shifts in the top challenges district leaders are facing, compared with 2025 survey results. Specifically, budget shortfalls and declining enrollment have risen to the top of district leaders\u2019 concerns, even as other long-standing challenges remain pressing issues.<\/p>\n<p>In this report, we examine how these challenges are affecting districts nationwide, drawing on survey findings from a nationally representative sample of public school district leaders and follow-on interviews with 38 district leaders across the United States to learn more about how they are responding to these challenges. This work is intended to provide national, state, and local policymakers\u2014as well as the general public\u2014timely information regarding the condition of public school systems nationwide and help inform decisions related to school funding, instructional improvement, and community engagement.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"budget-shortfalls-and-declinin-\">Budget Shortfalls and Declining Enrollment Emerge as Top Concerns in 2026 <\/h2>\n<p>As shown in Figure 1, the most frequently cited challenge in the spring 2026 <abbr title=\"American School District Panel\">ASDP<\/abbr> data is addressing budget shortages, selected by 54 percent of district leaders. This represents a large increase\u201421 percentage points more than the 33 percent of district leaders who ranked this as one of their three most pressing challenges in spring 2025. Addressing declining enrollment was another major concern in 2026, cited by 36 percent of respondents\u2014up from 25 percent in spring 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, other long-running issues remain prominent in 2026: Raising math achievement and raising reading achievement were chosen by 34 and 32 percent of survey respondents, respectively, although both appear to have declined somewhat in importance as pressures related to budget shortfalls and declining enrollment grew. Similarly, recruiting and keeping effective teachers and reducing chronic absenteeism among students were commonly cited concerns (by 35 and 31 percent, respectively), each of which is slightly less pressing than it was in spring 2025.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"full expand-width\"><figcaption><b>Figure 1.<\/b> Comparison of Top District Challenges Between Spring 2026 and Spring 2025<\/figcaption><div class=\"cmp-visualization\">\n<div id=\"datawrapper-vis-IvLRo\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/IvLRo\/full.png\" alt=\"Range Plot\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"access\">\n<ul>\n<li>Addressing budget shortages: 2025, 33%; 2026, 54%<\/li>\n<li>Addressing declining enrollment: 2025, 25%; 2026, 36%<\/li>\n<li>Recruiting and keeping effective teachers: 2025, 42%; 2026, 35%<\/li>\n<li>Raising math achievement: 2025, 40%; 2026, 34%<\/li>\n<li>Raising reading achievement: 2025, 44%; 2026, 32%<\/li>\n<li>Reducing chronic absenteeism: 2025, 38%; 2026, 31%<\/li>\n<li>Increasing student engagement in school: 2025, 26%; 2026, 19%<\/li>\n<li>Improving student behavior: 2025, 21%; 2026, 18%<\/li>\n<li>Increasing access to potential career opportunities for students: 2025 not shown; 2026, 10%<\/li>\n<li>Supporting students&rsquo; responsible use of AI: 2025 not shown; 2026, 9%<\/li>\n<li>Recruiting and keeping effective principals: 2025, 12%; 2026, 8%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"note\">NOTE: The x-axis of this figure depicts weighted survey responses from district representatives nationwide in spring 2025 (<em>n<\/em> = 234) and in spring 2026 (<em>n<\/em> = 481) to the following question: \u201cWhat are the three most pressing challenges for your schools this school year?\u201d Respondents were able to select up to three response items. Dots represent the percentage of district leaders who selected a specific concern in 2026 (purple) and 2025 (orange). The figure includes only those response items that more than 5 percent of district leaders identified as a top challenge in spring 2026. As a result, some items asked in both surveys do not appear. Response items from the spring 2026 survey that are not shown include \u201cLimiting students\u2019 cell phone use in schools\u201d (2 percent), \u201cManaging impacts of immigration enforcement\u201d (1 percent), and \u201cOther\u201d (5 percent), which was omitted for brevity. The response items \u201cIncreasing access to potential career opportunities for students\u201d and \u201cSupporting students\u2019 responsible use of AI\u201d were newly added to the spring 2026 survey and, therefore, do not have spring 2025 comparison values. AI = artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<h2 id=\"context-shapes-the-challenges--\">Context Shapes the Challenges That Districts Face<\/h2>\n<p>While some of the top district challenges are common nationwide, others differ by locale. As shown in Figure 2, concerns about budget shortfalls are widespread across rural, suburban, and urban districts. Declining enrollment, in contrast, is of greater concern in rural communities than in suburban ones\u2014a difference that may partly reflect shifting demographic trends before and around the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic (Ramani and Bloom, 2022; Fry, 2020).\u2060<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/research_reports\/RRA4737-4.html#fn1\" id=\"fnb1\">[1]<\/a><\/sup> Concerns about declining enrollment may also be higher in urban districts, although here the apparent difference is not statistically significant. This variation across district contexts underscores that budgetary and enrollment challenges are related but not interchangeable.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"full\"><figcaption><b>Figure 2.<\/b> Top District Challenges, by Locale<\/figcaption><div class=\"cmp-visualization\">\n<div id=\"datawrapper-vis-ZpU5w\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/ZpU5w\/full.png\" alt=\"Bar Chart\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"access\">\n<p><strong>Addressing budget shortages<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Urban: 47%<\/li>\n<li>Suburban: 55%<\/li>\n<li>Rural: 55%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Addressing declining enrollment<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Urban: 37%<\/li>\n<li>Suburban: 25%<\/li>\n<li>Rural: 39%*<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"note\">NOTE: This figure shows response data from the following survey question administered to a nationally representative sample of district representatives in spring 2026: \u201cWhat are the three most pressing challenges for your schools this school year?\u201d The bars show the percentage of district leaders that chose each of the shown response items among their top three most pressing challenges. The asterisk (*) shows that the result for \u201caddressing declining enrollment\u201d was statistically significantly different between rural and suburban district leaders.<em> N<\/em> = 481; urban (<em>n<\/em> = 50); suburban (<em>n<\/em> = 127); rural (<em>n<\/em> = 304).<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<h2 id=\"what-this-looks-like-for-schoo-\">What This Looks Like for Schools: Rising Costs, Declining Revenues<\/h2>\n<h3 id=\"district-leaders-say-that-budg-\">District Leaders Say That Budget Shortfalls Have Risen to the Top Because of Rising Costs, Constrained Revenues, and the Ways in Which Cost-Cutting Can Intensify Other Challenges<\/h3>\n<p>In spring 2026, we interviewed district leaders from 38 districts (35 superintendents and three leaders in other roles) to understand why budget shortfalls and declining enrollment had become their top concerns.\u2060<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/research_reports\/RRA4737-4.html#fn2\" id=\"fnb2\">[2]<\/a><\/sup> While some researchers have characterized the end of <abbr title=\"coronavirus disease 2019\">COVID-19<\/abbr> era relief funds as pushing district finances toward a budgetary \u201ccliff\u201d (LeFebvre and Master, 2024), nearly all of the district leaders we spoke with described the challenge in broader terms: rising costs that now outstrip the revenue coming in. We also heard that budget shortfalls are especially difficult for district leaders because cutting costs often means cutting services or staff, which worsens other persistent challenges.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"inflation-staffing-costs-and-m-\">Inflation, Staffing Costs, and Meeting Student Needs Are All Driving Up District Costs<\/h3>\n<p>One district leader summarized the interrelatedness of pressures as follows: \u201cEverything else has gotten more expensive. I mean, keeping the lights on, salary increases, all those things.\u201d Ten of the leaders we spoke with pointed to inflation in everyday operating costs, such as utilities, transportation, facilities, and the goods and services districts rely on. One superintendent noted that the cost of school buses had doubled from $80,000 to $160,000 over his six-year tenure; another noted that aging district facilities \u201cstart to hemorrhage cash.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Mandatory, contracted cost-of-living salary increases for educators are among the most significant contributors to budget shortfalls described by more than half of the leaders with whom we spoke, because salaries and benefits make up the majority of most district budgets. Staffing levels have grown too: Some districts used <abbr title=\"coronavirus disease 2019\">COVID-19<\/abbr> relief funds to add positions to support student well-being and have found those roles difficult to give up, even as that funding has ended. As one leader put it, \u201cWe just couldn\u2019t let them go.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Other cost pressures stem from new and growing obligations: more students qualifying for special services, the need to sustain mental health supports, and state-mandated adoption of high-quality instructional materials (HQIM). For example, one district leader said that \u201c[<abbr title=\"high-quality instructional materials\">HQIM<\/abbr> cost] lots of six-digit-number money. So when [state mandates for <abbr title=\"high-quality instructional materials\">HQIM<\/abbr>] happen, those are increased expenditures that we weren\u2019t previously paying for.\u201d Taken together, these pressures leave many districts needing to, as one leader put it, \u201ccontinue to strategize how we will maintain a robust array of services while also trying to do that with less revenue.\u201d<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"revenues-have-not-kept-pace-wi-\">Revenues Have Not Kept Pace with Costs<\/h3>\n<p>Most superintendents who flagged inflationary or cost pressures told us that their per-pupil funding allotments from their states have not kept pace. One leader explained that \u201cspecial education costs, transportation, and utilities\u2014they\u2019re outpacing what the state can give us.\u201d In districts that rely more heavily on local funding, some leaders described community resistance to raising local taxes, often because residents are facing their own higher costs of living. In some cases, even where there is a local appetite to raise more revenue for schools, statutory limits on annual tax increases have not kept pace with inflation.<\/p>\n<p>Declining enrollment adds to these budgetary pressures. Districts with fewer students year over year face shrinking budgets because state and local funding formulas tie revenue to per-pupil enrollment levels. But even leaders in districts with stable enrollment reported experiencing the financial pinch from rising costs and constrained state and local funding.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"cutting-costs-often-means-cutt-\">Cutting Costs Often Means Cutting Services or Staff, Which Affects Student Learning<\/h3>\n<p>Part of what makes budget shortfalls such a difficult challenge to address is how entangled it is with other pressures that district leaders are facing. For example, several superintendents pointed out that student achievement concerns have not gone away; rather, they have been compounded by budget pressures. With less money coming in, district leaders reported having fewer resources to support student learning or having to pick substandard options. One leader described adopting a \u201ccanned curriculum\u201d that requires less skill from teachers because the district had previously cut central office positions meant to support teacher development. Teacher hiring and retention is similarly challenging: When districts cannot offer competitive salaries, they risk losing experienced teachers and struggle to attract new talent, directly affecting the quality of instruction students receive.\u2060<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/research_reports\/RRA4737-4.html#fn3\" id=\"fnb3\">[3]<\/a><\/sup> One superintendent described staff cuts as \u201cabsolutely brutal.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Most superintendents told us that they have begun with cost-saving measures that do not directly touch staff or services, such as drawing down reserve funds, asking every department to cut spending by a set percentage, or trimming smaller expenses wherever possible. As one leader put it, \u201cIt\u2019s just little things like that do add up.\u201d A few superintendents described considering more-extreme measures, such as closing schools or merging with neighboring districts, if conditions continued to worsen.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"districts-face-demographic-hea-\">Districts Face Demographic Headwinds and Increased Competition Across Schooling Options<\/h2>\n<p>While enrollment declines are contributing to districts\u2019 recent budget crunches, they represent a longer-running challenge for districts. Public school enrollment was still rising as recently as 2019, when the <abbr title=\"coronavirus disease 2019\">COVID-19<\/abbr> pandemic precipitated a substantial drop, and many students transitioned to homeschool or private school options in response to disruptions at public schools. At the same time, decreasing birth rates, aging populations, and recently reduced numbers of immigrant students are likely to contribute to sustained declines in enrollment for years to come (Council, Goulas, and Monachou, 2025; Dee and Murphy, 2020). Districts grappling with enrollment decline are therefore facing not only the immediate budget pressures described above but also the prospect of continued declines in enrollment and funding.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"districts-are-promoting-public-\">Districts Are Promoting Public Schools, Expanding Programs, and Adding Services in Response to Enrollment Declines<\/h3>\n<p>Many districts nationwide are exploring ways to boost enrollment. As summarized in Figure 3, 40 percent of districts are considering marketing campaigns to families to promote the benefits of attending public schools. One-third (33 percent) of districts are considering expanding their pre-kindergarten (pre-K) services to engage families with young children earlier. Others are exploring offering additional specialized programs and extracurricular activities (e.g., sports, out-of-school programming) as a way of competing to attract and retain students. Another one-third (33 percent) of respondents indicated that they were not planning or enacting any steps to boost enrollment.<\/p>\n<p>Even though declining enrollment is a greater challenge for leaders in rural districts than in suburban districts, rural district leaders are less likely to be planning specific responses to attempt to boost student enrollment. This may largely be driven by differences in average district size across urban, suburban, and rural locales and their corresponding capacity to implement additional activities.\u2060<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/research_reports\/RRA4737-4.html#fn4\" id=\"fnb4\">[4]<\/a><\/sup> In addition to differences in district size, districts may also face varying degrees of competition with other schooling options. For example, while increases in homeschooling likely affect districts in all locales, rural districts might face less competition for students because fewer nearby private or public school alternatives are available to families.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"full expand-width\"><figcaption><b>Figure 3.<\/b> District Plans to Boost Student Enrollment, by Locale<\/figcaption><div class=\"cmp-visualization\">\n<div id=\"datawrapper-vis-1f8qn\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/1f8qn\/full.png\" alt=\"Is your district considering or enacting any of the following steps to boost student enrollment?\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"access\">\n<ul>\n<li>Marketing campaign to families about the benefits of attending your public schools: &#013;\n<ul>\n<li>Total: 40%&#013;\n  <\/li>\n<li>Urban 65%<\/li>\n<li>Suburban 42%<\/li>\n<li>Rural 36%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Expanding pre-K services: &#013;\n<ul>\n<li>Total: 33%&#013;\n  <\/li>\n<li>Urban 59%<\/li>\n<li>Suburban 37%<\/li>\n<li>Rural 29%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Offering additional extracurriculars or specialized programs to help attract and retain students (e.g., sports, gifted-and-talented programs, out-of-school programs):&#013;\n<ul>\n<li>Total: 33%&#013;\n  <\/li>\n<li>Urban 64%<\/li>\n<li>Suburban 38%<\/li>\n<li>Rural 28%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Offering tutoring, electives, or other teaching services to families not in your public schools (i.e., services that can be purchased using Education Savings Accounts):&#013;\n<ul>\n<li>Total: 10%&#013;\n  <\/li>\n<li>Urban 24%<\/li>\n<li>Suburban 10%<\/li>\n<li>Rural 88%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Conducting market research about parent or student preferences for schooling (e.g., parent focus groups):&#013;\n<ul>\n<li>Total: 6%&#013;\n  <\/li>\n<li>Urban 27%<\/li>\n<li>Suburban 5%<\/li>\n<li>Rural 4%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Other:&#013;\n<ul>\n<li>Total: 5%&#013;\n  <\/li>\n<li>Urban 7%<\/li>\n<li>Suburban 3%<\/li>\n<li>Rural 6%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Hiring a recruitment consultant:&#013;\n<ul>\n<li>Total: 1%&#013;\n  <\/li>\n<li>Urban 4%<\/li>\n<li>Suburban 1%<\/li>\n<li>Rural 1%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>No\/none of the above:&#013;\n<ul>\n<li>Total: 33%&#013;\n  <\/li>\n<li>Urban 8%<\/li>\n<li>Suburban 29%<\/li>\n<li>Rural 38%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"note\">NOTE: This figure shows the percentage of district leaders in our nationally representative sample in spring 2026 who selected various response items for the following survey question: \u201cIs your district considering or enacting any of the following steps to boost student enrollment?\u201d Respondents were instructed to select all that apply; therefore, percentages do not add up to 100. <em>n<\/em> = 474.<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<h3 id=\"in-interviews-district-leaders-\">In Interviews, District Leaders Detailed Their Efforts to Attract and Retain as Many Students as Possible amid Increased Competition<\/h3>\n<p>Fourteen of the district leaders we spoke with cited declining birth rates as the main cause of enrollment decline in their districts, but other reasons given varied based on local context, such as the labor market or out-migration. Many leaders were also increasingly aware of the impact that diverse forms of school choice have on public school enrollment. As one superintendent summed up, \u201cWe have so many new charter schools popping up. And then . . . [lower] birth rates, and just naturally, our economic growth is more minimal than we would like. . . . all the things that also contribute to [declining enrollment].\u201d District leaders acknowledged that there was little they could do to increase birth rates, but many were taking steps to retain current students and attract as many new ones as possible.<\/p>\n<p>In districts facing heavy competition from homeschooling, private schools, open enrollment, and charter schools, leaders noted a shift in parents\u2019 perceptions of the value of public schools. Some leaders told us that parents in their district believe, rightly or wrongly, that the quality and reputation of public schools have declined and that this perception is driving student departures. Leaders often connected parents\u2019 perceptions to their experiences during the <abbr title=\"coronavirus disease 2019\">COVID-19<\/abbr> pandemic. As one put it, \u201cPeople started to really question the schools when they were home because of COVID.\u201d Consistent with our survey findings about district plans to boost enrollment, these leaders described undertaking a variety of marketing activities, such as social media campaigns, website redesigns, radio advertising, and what one leader called \u201creputation management\u201d (i.e., sharing good news about district schools and the breadth of services offered).<\/p>\n<p>Relatedly, other leaders described families\u2014often more affluent ones\u2014taking a more \u201c\u00e0 la carte\u201d approach to education altogether, moving students between private schools, charter schools, and traditional public schools, sometimes even mid\u2013school year. One superintendent relayed what she hears from families: \u201cWe want to do education \u00e0 la carte. So we\u2019ll have a little bit of private school, we\u2019ll have a little bit of public school. Yeah, I want to play baseball this year, so I\u2019m going to sign up [for public school].\u201d Another district leader noted that students return from private or home schools often in the older grades, drawn back by the chance to play sports. In response, these districts have added academic and extracurricular offerings: new sports and activities, career and technical education programs, and Advanced Placement or college-credit courses, among others.<\/p>\n<p>Beyond school choice and birth rates, other factors were more localized. Some leaders described slower local economic growth and higher costs of living, which have made their communities less likely to attract new families. Others noted declining numbers of immigrant students, which some attributed to increased federal immigration enforcement: As one superintendent described, \u201cICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] has had a tremendous impact. . . . we noticed that we have a lot of families self-deporting . . . people feel like they have no [other options].\u201d In districts where local industry had shifted to bring in younger workers, leaders reported adding day care and <abbr title=\"pre-kindergarten\">pre-K<\/abbr> services to attract new families. Where leaders worried that members of their communities did not feel safe or welcomed, some added social supports, such as food banks (in partnership with community-based organizations), or introduced family engagement events aimed at building a stronger sense of belonging.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"conclusion-\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Our findings highlight that many districts are operating in a more competitive and financially precarious landscape than in the past, with potential implications for student learning. Declining enrollment is not only reducing revenue in some communities; it is also prompting leadership in public school districts to behave differently\u2014to market their schools to families, expand signature programs, and think more strategically about how to retain students in the face of school choices and changing family expectations. At the same time, budget shortfalls will likely constrain districts\u2019 ability to invest in those very strategies, creating a difficult environment in which the need to compete grows just as district resources tighten.<\/p>\n<p>This convergence of financial pressure and enrollment competition raises important questions about the future shape of public education systems. If public school districts must increasingly differentiate themselves to maintain enrollment, which communities will have the capacity to do so and which will be left managing decline? If budget stabilization depends on service reductions, what happens to the breadth of opportunities (e.g., summer, afterschool, extracurricular programs) that public schools provide to support students\u2019 academic improvement? Our data suggest that for many district leaders, the challenge ahead is not simply balancing next year\u2019s budget, but navigating a new landscape in which fiscal health, family choice, and educational offerings are becoming more tightly linked.<\/p>\n<p>For state and local policymakers, these findings highlight the need to consider how current fiscal and policy conditions are shaping district decisionmaking. Even if state and local education investments were held steady in nominal terms, inflation and the end of federal <abbr title=\"coronavirus disease 2019\">COVID-19<\/abbr> relief funding are eroding districts\u2019 capacity to provide services, with potential impacts on staffing and program quality. At the same time, with the expectation of continued enrollment decline, public school districts will need support both to plan for long-term downsizing and to identify and invest in the programs and services that can help them better attract and retain students from families living in their communities.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"sans sand30 full expand-width\">\n<h2 id=\"methodology-\">Methodology<\/h2>\n<h3 id=\"survey-methods-\">Survey Methods<\/h3>\n<p>We administered the spring 2026 <abbr title=\"American School District Panel\">ASDP<\/abbr> survey to 11,967 <abbr title=\"kindergarten through 12th grade\">K\u201312<\/abbr> public school districts across the United States between March 18 and May 4, 2026. Of districts invited to complete the survey, 481 participated (a response rate of 4 percent). Questions about top challenges for districts represented one section of the 8-minute online survey. District responses are weighted as a function of district size, locale, poverty level, race and ethnicity composition, and region to be nationally representative. However, although we can ensure that the sample is representative on these observable district characteristics, our findings could be biased as the result of unobserved differences in the types of districts or leaders that opted to participate in the survey. Full technical details regarding this survey administration are available (see Master et al., 2026).<\/p>\n<p>&#013;<\/p>\n<p>We design our <abbr title=\"American School District Panel\">ASDP<\/abbr> surveys to allow for multiple representatives from the same district central office to complete portions of the survey\u2014for example, a superintendent might answer questions about top challenges for the district while an academic director might complete questions about math instruction. We do not track which person(s) in each district completed the survey on behalf of their district.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"interview-methods-\">Interview Methods<\/h3>\n<p>Between March and June 2026, we conducted 38 qualitative, semistructured interviews with district leaders (35 superintendents and three leaders in other roles) who completed the spring 2026 <abbr title=\"American School District Panel\">ASDP<\/abbr> survey and expressed an openness to participating in a follow-on interview. Interviewees represented a variety of school system sizes and geographic areas, including small, rural districts serving fewer than 1,000 students and large, urban ones serving more than 300,000 students. Specifically, the sample comprised 19 leaders serving rural districts (because rural districts make up the majority of <abbr title=\"kindergarten through 12th grade\">K\u201312<\/abbr> public school districts), and leaders from nine suburban, five town, and five urban districts.<\/p>\n<p>&#013;<\/p>\n<p>The interviews covered a variety of topics related to declining enrollment and budget shortfalls in <abbr title=\"kindergarten through 12th grade\">K\u201312<\/abbr> school districts, including their causes, district strategies to improve enrollment and address budget shortfalls, and the barriers and supports related to addressing these two issues. Interviews lasted between 20 and 40 minutes and were audio-recorded and transcribed. Researchers coded the data using deductive themes based on the interview protocol and employed an analytic matrix to track patterns across responses. Interview protocols are available on request. Because these findings are based on self-reported interview data, they reflect district leaders\u2019 perspectives and may be subject to recall error or other reporting biases.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"background-\">Background<\/h3>\n<p>The full set of <abbr title=\"American School District Panel\">ASDP<\/abbr> survey results can be viewed and user-friendly charts can be created in Bento, a free data visualization tool. To learn more about Bento, go to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.getbento.info\/about\">www.getbento.info\/about<\/a> or email <a href=\"mailto:bento@mgt.us\">bento@mgt.us<\/a>. The <abbr title=\"American School District Panel\">ASDP<\/abbr> is one of the American Educator Panels (AEP), which are nationally representative samples of teachers, school leaders, and district leaders across the country. The panels are a proud member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research\u2019s Transparency Initiative. Some of the language in this box describing our survey methodology has been reused from previous RAND reports that are also based on <abbr title=\"American School District Panel\">ASDP<\/abbr> survey findings. For more information, visit <a href=\"https:\/\/www.americanschooldistrictpanel.org\/\">https:\/\/www.americanschooldistrictpanel.org\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<h2 class=\"c5\" id=\"acknowledgments-\">Acknowledgments<\/h2>\n<p>We are extremely grateful to the district leaders who agreed to participate in the <abbr title=\"American School District Panel\">ASDP<\/abbr> survey and follow-on interviews. Their time and willingness to share their experiences were invaluable for helping us to understand critical challenges facing schools nationwide. We thank Vanessa Miller for helping manage the survey, Gerald Hunter for serving as the data manager for the survey, and Roberto Guevara for programming the survey. Thanks to Claude Messan Setodji for managing the weighting for these analyses. We also thank Jill Cannon and Elaine Wang for helpful feedback that greatly improved this report. Finally, we thank Stephanie Lonsinger for her editorial expertise and Monette Velasco for overseeing the publication process.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"c5\" id=\"notes-\">Notes<\/h2>\n<ol class=\"footnotes\">\n<li id=\"fn1\">While district locale is correlated with district size, differences between large and small districts were less pronounced than differences between rural and nonrural districts. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/research_reports\/RRA4737-4.html#fnb1\">Return to content \u2934<\/a><\/li>\n<li id=\"fn2\">Although we conducted interviews with a nonrandom sample of volunteers from among survey completers, the resulting sample consists of a reasonable mix of rural, urban, and suburban districts. Additional details are available in the methodology box at the end of this report. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/research_reports\/RRA4737-4.html#fnb2\">Return to content \u2934<\/a><\/li>\n<li id=\"fn3\">Evidence shows that teacher quality is the most significant school-related factor affecting student achievement (Rivkin, Hanushek, and Kain, 2005). <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/research_reports\/RRA4737-4.html#fnb3\">Return to content \u2934<\/a><\/li>\n<li id=\"fn4\">Subgroup differences were similar when we compared responses across small, medium, and large districts, separate from district locales, which suggests that district size may be a key factor in districts\u2019 ability to address this challenge. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/research_reports\/RRA4737-4.html#fnb4\">Return to content \u2934<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2 class=\"c5\" id=\"references-\">References<\/h2>\n<ul class=\"references\">\n<li>Council, Dylan, Sofoklis Goulas, and Faidra Monachou, \u201cDeclining Public School Enrollment,\u201d Brookings Institution, August 27, 2025.<\/li>\n<li>Dee, Thomas S., and Mark Murphy, \u201cVanished Classmates: The Effects of Local Immigration Enforcement on School Enrollment,\u201d <em>American Educational Research Journal<\/em>, Vol. 57, No. 2, 2020.<\/li>\n<li>Fry, Richard, <em>Prior to COVID-19, Urban Core Counties in the U.S. Were Gaining Vitality on Key Measures<\/em>, Pew Research Center, July 29, 2020.<\/li>\n<li>LeFebvre, Joanna, and Sonali Master, <em>Expiration of Federal K\u201312 Emergency Funds Could Pose Challenges for States<\/em>, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, February 28, 2024. <\/li>\n<li>Master, Benjamin K., Claude Messan Setodji, Gerald P. Hunter, Samantha E. DiNicola, and AK Keskin, <em>Technical Documentation for the Thirteenth American School District Panel Survey<\/em>, RAND Corporation, RR-A4737-3, 2026. As of July 13, 2026: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/research_reports\/RRA4737-3.html\">https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/research_reports\/RRA4737-3.html<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Ramani, Arjun, and Nicholas Bloom, \u201cThe Donut Effect of COVID-19 on Cities,\u201d National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper No. 28876, May 2021, revised December 2022.<\/li>\n<li>Rivkin, Steven G., Eric A. Hanushek, and John F. Kain, \u201cTeachers, Schools, and Academic Achievement,\u201d <em>Econometrica<\/em>, Vol. 73, No. 2, March 2005.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<section class=\"related-resources\" id=\"related\">\n<div class=\"section-inner\">\n<h2 class=\"c6\">Related Content<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<h2 class=\"c6\">Topics<\/h2>\n<div class=\"tabcontainer accordion\">\n<div class=\"tabContent\">\n<div class=\"tabs\" id=\"document-details\">\n<div class=\"tabContentInner\">\n<div>\n<ul class=\"document-details css2col css1col-sm\">\n<li class=\"copyright\"><strong>Copyright:<\/strong> RAND Corporation<\/li>\n<li><strong>Availability:<\/strong> Web-Only<\/li>\n<li><strong>Year:<\/strong> 2026<\/li>\n<li><strong>DOI:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7249\/RRA4737-4\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7249\/RRA4737-4<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Document Number:<\/strong> RR-A4737-4<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tabs\" id=\"citation\">\n<div id=\"citation-message\">\n<div class=\"tabContentInner\">\n<div>\n<div id=\"rand-style-manual\" class=\"citation-format\" hidden=\"hidden\">\n<h3 class=\"c7 sans\">RAND Style Manual<\/h3>\n<p>Clinton, Tia, Benjamin K. Master, Lydia R. Rainey, and AK Keskin, <em>Shrinking Budgets, Fewer Students: How District Leaders are Navigating a New Landscape of Reduced Resources and Competitive Pressures,<\/em> RAND Corporation, RR-A4737-4, 2026. As of July 14, 2026: https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/research_reports\/RRA4737-4.html<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"citation-format\">\n<h3 class=\"c7 sans\">Chicago Manual of Style<\/h3>\n<p>Clinton, Tia, Benjamin K. Master, Lydia R. Rainey, and AK Keskin, Shrinking Budgets, Fewer Students: How District Leaders are Navigating a New Landscape of Reduced Resources and Competitive Pressures. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2026. https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/research_reports\/RRA4737-4.html.<\/p>\n<p>\n        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/content\/rand\/pubs\/research_reports\/RRA4737-4\/_jcr_content\/par\/product.RRA4737-4.bib\" class=\"icon-before icon-before-citation sans small\">BibTeX<\/a><br \/>\n        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/content\/rand\/pubs\/research_reports\/RRA4737-4\/_jcr_content\/par\/product.RRA4737-4.ris\" class=\"icon-before icon-before-citation sans small\">RIS<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"full-bg-sand full-bg-bottom\">\n<div class=\"conducted\">\n<ul class=\"upc\">\n<li class=\"education-employment-infrastructure c6\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/education-employment-infrastructure.html\">RAND Education, Employment, and Infrastructure<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"sans small\">\n<p>This publication is part of the RAND research report series. Research reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND research reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.<\/p>\n<p>This work is licensed under a <a href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License<\/a>. All users of the publication are permitted to copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format and transform and build upon the material, including for any purpose (including commercial) without further permission or fees being required.<\/p>\n<p>RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND&rsquo;s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/research_reports\/RRA4737-4.html\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"feedzy-rss-link-icon\">Lire la Suite<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Photo by skynesher\/Getty Images Key Takeaways Budget shortfalls have become the top challenge U.S. public school district leaders are facing in 2026, with 54 percent of survey respondents ranking it 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