Le Conseil d\u2019orientation des retraites (COR) r\u00e9alise chaque ann\u00e9e des projections financi\u00e8res du syst\u00e8me de retraite \u00e0 partir d\u2019un sc\u00e9nario de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence. Pour l\u2019\u00e9dition 2025, ce sc\u00e9nario s\u2019appuie sur les hypoth\u00e8ses d\u00e9mographiques centrales des projections de population 2021 de l\u2019Insee : allongement de l\u2019esp\u00e9rance de vie, f\u00e9condit\u00e9 \u00e0 1,8 enfant par femme et solde migratoire annuel de +70 000 personnes. Il retient \u00e9galement une croissance de la productivit\u00e9 horaire de 0,7 % \u00e0 partir de 2040 et un taux de ch\u00f4mage stabilis\u00e9 \u00e0 7 % d\u00e8s 2032. Dans ce cadre, les d\u00e9penses de retraite seraient de 14 % du PIB en 2030 et de 14,2 % en 2070.<\/p>\n
Les observations r\u00e9centes s\u2019\u00e9cartent toutefois de ces hypoth\u00e8ses, en particulier avec une f\u00e9condit\u00e9 inf\u00e9rieure au sc\u00e9nario central (1,56 enfant par femme en 2025) et un solde migratoire nettement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9. Ces \u00e9carts ont conduit les membres du COR \u00e0 s\u2019interroger sur une r\u00e9vision des hypoth\u00e8ses \u00e0 l\u2019occasion du rapport de juin 2025. Ils ont n\u00e9anmoins d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de maintenir les hypoth\u00e8ses existantes, en attendant les nouvelles projections d\u00e9mographiques de l\u2019Insee pr\u00e9vues pour 2026 et afin de rester coh\u00e9rents avec les hypoth\u00e8ses utilis\u00e9es par la mission flash de la Cour des comptes publi\u00e9e en f\u00e9vrier 2025.<\/p>\n
Un r\u00e9examen de l\u2019ensemble de ces hypoth\u00e8ses est programm\u00e9 pour la s\u00e9ance pl\u00e9ni\u00e8re du COR d\u2019avril 2026, avec l\u2019appui de l\u2019Insee, en vue de la pr\u00e9paration du rapport annuel de juin 2026. Le diagnostic financier de ce prochain rapport pourrait \u00eatre significativement r\u00e9vis\u00e9 par rapport \u00e0 celui de juin 2025, ce qui pourrait affecter l\u2019appr\u00e9ciation de la trajectoire de d\u00e9penses de retraite dans le cadre du suivi des politiques sociales et de l\u2019emploi.\u00a0(contenu r\u00e9sum\u00e9 en fran\u00e7ais par l’IA)\u200bLire la Suite<\/a>\u200b<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Le Conseil d\u2019orientation des retraites (COR) r\u00e9alise chaque ann\u00e9e des projections financi\u00e8res du syst\u00e8me de retraite \u00e0 partir d\u2019un sc\u00e9nario de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence. Pour l\u2019\u00e9dition 2025, ce sc\u00e9nario s\u2019appuie sur les […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7069,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[159],"tags":[175],"class_list":["post-13711","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-retraites-et-vieillesse","tag-cor"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13711","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13711"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13711\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14469,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13711\/revisions\/14469"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7069"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13711"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13711"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13711"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}