L\u2019article pr\u00e9sente une \u00e9volution d\u00e9mographique in\u00e9dite : un nombre croissant de pays connaissent d\u00e9sormais un d\u00e9clin structurel de leur population, non li\u00e9 \u00e0 des chocs temporaires (guerres, famines), mais \u00e0 une baisse durable de la f\u00e9condit\u00e9. Sur la base des estimations et projections \u00ab variante moyenne \u00bb des Nations unies, 64 pays et territoires auraient d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9pass\u00e9 leur pic de population en 2026. Ces projections int\u00e8grent trois param\u00e8tres principaux : les taux de f\u00e9condit\u00e9, l\u2019esp\u00e9rance de vie et les flux migratoires.<\/p>\n
Les pays d\u00e9j\u00e0 concern\u00e9s se situent majoritairement en Europe et en Asie de l\u2019Est, zones marqu\u00e9es par une chute rapide des taux de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 suivie de niveaux durablement bas. De nombreux pays d\u2019Europe de l\u2019Est sont \u00e9galement confront\u00e9s \u00e0 des d\u00e9parts importants de population, ce qui accentue le recul d\u00e9mographique. Certains pays embl\u00e9matiques, comme le Japon et l\u2019Italie, auraient atteint leur maximum de population depuis plus d\u2019une d\u00e9cennie. D\u2019autres cas sont mis en avant, comme la Tha\u00eflande, dont le taux de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 est pass\u00e9 sous le seuil de deux enfants par femme d\u00e8s le d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 1990 et se situe d\u00e9sormais sous 1,2, ou l\u2019Uruguay, avec un taux moyen de 1,4 enfant par femme.<\/p>\n
Les projections des Nations unies \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2100 font appara\u00eetre des diminutions de population tr\u00e8s marqu\u00e9es dans plusieurs grands pays : la Cor\u00e9e du Sud et la Chine pourraient voir leur population plus que divis\u00e9e par deux ; l\u2019Italie pourrait perdre plus de 40 % de sa population ; l\u2019Espagne et la Tha\u00eflande environ un tiers. \u00c0 plus long terme, de nombreuses autres r\u00e9gions seraient concern\u00e9es : une grande partie de l\u2019Am\u00e9rique du Sud pourrait avoir d\u00e9pass\u00e9 son pic de population dans les ann\u00e9es 2050, et une grande partie de l\u2019Asie du Sud dans les ann\u00e9es 2060, incluant l\u2019Inde, actuellement pays le plus peupl\u00e9 du monde.<\/p>\n
Les auteurs soulignent que ces projections sont sensibles aux hypoth\u00e8ses retenues en mati\u00e8re de f\u00e9condit\u00e9, de long\u00e9vit\u00e9 et de migration, dont l\u2019\u00e9volution \u00e0 50 ans est difficile \u00e0 anticiper. Ils rappellent notamment que de nombreux pays \u00e0 revenu \u00e9lev\u00e9 ne maintiennent aujourd\u2019hui une population stable ou en croissance que gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l\u2019immigration, et que des modifications significatives des flux migratoires pourraient modifier substantiellement les trajectoires d\u00e9mographiques nationales. Ces \u00e9l\u00e9ments pr\u00e9sentent un int\u00e9r\u00eat pour le suivi des politiques publiques, notamment en mati\u00e8re de protection sociale, de march\u00e9 du travail, de solidarit\u00e9 interg\u00e9n\u00e9rationnelle et de planification des besoins en main-d\u2019\u0153uvre, dans un contexte international de baisse structurelle de la f\u00e9condit\u00e9 et de vieillissement d\u00e9mographique.(contenu r\u00e9sum\u00e9 en fran\u00e7ais par l’IA)\u00a0Lire la Suite<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" L\u2019article pr\u00e9sente une \u00e9volution d\u00e9mographique in\u00e9dite : un nombre croissant de pays connaissent d\u00e9sormais un d\u00e9clin structurel de leur population, non li\u00e9 \u00e0 des chocs temporaires (guerres, famines), mais \u00e0 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10543,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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