Le document pr\u00e9sente une nouvelle approche exploratoire de planification prospective et d\u2019anticipation, appel\u00e9e \u00ab integrated strategic forecasting \u00bb (ISF), propos\u00e9e par l\u2019institution de recherche am\u00e9ricaine RAND, dans le cadre de sa s\u00e9rie \u00ab RAND Global and Emerging Risks \u00bb. Cette approche vise \u00e0 renforcer la capacit\u00e9 des d\u00e9cideurs publics \u00e0 anticiper des \u00e9volutions futures dans un contexte de changements g\u00e9opolitiques acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9s, afin d\u2019am\u00e9liorer leur avantage d\u00e9cisionnel.<\/p>\n
L\u2019ISF combine deux m\u00e9thodologies d\u00e9j\u00e0 largement utilis\u00e9es par les pouvoirs publics, le monde acad\u00e9mique et le secteur priv\u00e9 pour \u00e9clairer la d\u00e9cision et la pr\u00e9paration de l\u2019action publique face \u00e0 des futurs incertains : d\u2019une part, la planification par sc\u00e9narios, fond\u00e9e sur l\u2019\u00e9laboration structur\u00e9e de futurs alternatifs plausibles ; d\u2019autre part, le recours \u00e0 la pr\u00e9vision participative ou \u00ab crowdsourced forecasting \u00bb, qui mobilise un large \u00e9ventail de contributeurs pour produire des estimations probabilistes de tendances et d\u2019\u00e9v\u00e9nements futurs. L\u2019enjeu central analys\u00e9 est de d\u00e9terminer comment l\u2019int\u00e9gration de ces deux approches peut am\u00e9liorer l\u2019anticipation et la hi\u00e9rarchisation des risques et opportunit\u00e9s futurs.<\/p>\n
Les auteurs exposent d\u2019abord les principes et usages principaux de la planification par sc\u00e9narios et de la pr\u00e9vision participative, puis d\u00e9crivent la m\u00e9thodologie ISF qui cherche \u00e0 tirer parti de leurs forces compl\u00e9mentaires. Ils proposent un sch\u00e9ma en cinq \u00e9tapes pour mettre en \u0153uvre l\u2019ISF et l\u2019illustrent \u00e0 partir d\u2019un cas d\u2019usage portant sur les technologies \u00e9mergentes, domaine jug\u00e9 particuli\u00e8rement incertain et strat\u00e9gique. \u00c0 partir de cet exemple, ils montrent comment l\u2019ISF peut aider \u00e0 mieux cartographier les d\u00e9veloppements possibles et \u00e0 identifier ceux qui n\u00e9cessitent une attention prioritaire de la part des d\u00e9cideurs publics.<\/p>\n
Le document souligne enfin des pistes de d\u00e9ploiement et de consolidation de cette approche, ainsi que des perspectives d\u2019am\u00e9lioration pour mieux soutenir les responsables publics dans la pr\u00e9paration \u00e0 des \u00e9volutions incertaines. Les auteurs insistent sur le fait que l\u2019ISF est une d\u00e9marche exploratoire, encore en d\u00e9veloppement, et qu\u2019elle doit \u00eatre adapt\u00e9e et test\u00e9e dans diff\u00e9rents contextes sectoriels et institutionnels. Aucune application sectorielle sp\u00e9cifique aux politiques de sant\u00e9, d\u2019affaires sociales, de solidarit\u00e9, de handicap, de travail ou d\u2019emploi n\u2019est d\u00e9taill\u00e9e, mais l\u2019approche est pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e comme potentiellement pertinente pour tout champ de politique publique confront\u00e9 \u00e0 une forte incertitude sur les \u00e9volutions futures.(contenu r\u00e9sum\u00e9 en fran\u00e7ais par l’IA)\u00a0Lire la Suite<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Le document pr\u00e9sente une nouvelle approche exploratoire de planification prospective et d\u2019anticipation, appel\u00e9e \u00ab integrated strategic forecasting \u00bb (ISF), propos\u00e9e par l\u2019institution de recherche am\u00e9ricaine RAND, dans le cadre de […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10675,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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