Une \u00e9tude scientifique publi\u00e9e dans la revue Global Change Biology analyse la progression du moustique tigre (Aedes albopictus) et du risque de dengue en France m\u00e9tropolitaine \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2085, en combinant sc\u00e9narios climatiques et d\u00e9mographiques \u00e0 haute r\u00e9solution spatiale (environ 8 km). Le moustique tigre, originaire d\u2019Asie tropicale et install\u00e9 en France depuis 2004, est d\u00e9sormais pr\u00e9sent dans 30 des 45 pays europ\u00e9ens recens\u00e9s par le Centre europ\u00e9en de pr\u00e9vention et de contr\u00f4le des maladies (ECDC). Sa diffusion s\u2019accompagne d\u2019une augmentation du risque de transmission autochtone d\u2019arboviroses, notamment la dengue et le chikungunya. La France et l\u2019Italie ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 connu plusieurs foyers de ces maladies au cours des derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, dont une \u00e9pid\u00e9mie de dengue \u00e0 Fano (Italie) en 2024 et une flamb\u00e9e de chikungunya en France en 2025.<\/p>\n
L\u2019\u00e9tude a \u00e9t\u00e9 conduite par le laboratoire MIVEGEC (Universit\u00e9 de Montpellier, IRD, CNRS), en collaboration avec le CIRAD, l\u2019INRAE et l\u2019ICTP de Trieste. Elle se concentre sp\u00e9cifiquement sur la France, caract\u00e9ris\u00e9e par une forte diversit\u00e9 climatique (m\u00e9diterran\u00e9en, oc\u00e9anique, continental, alpin) et une exposition importante aux cas import\u00e9s, afin d\u2019anticiper l\u2019\u00e9volution de cette \u00ab maladie tropicale \u00bb en contexte europ\u00e9en temp\u00e9r\u00e9. Les chercheurs ont d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 un mod\u00e8le reliant la dynamique de population du moustique \u00e0 un module \u00e9pid\u00e9miologique estimant les cas secondaires de dengue \u00e0 partir de l\u2019introduction d\u2019un cas import\u00e9. Ce mod\u00e8le a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9talonn\u00e9 \u00e0 partir des cas autochtones de dengue notifi\u00e9s par Sant\u00e9 publique France en 2024 et 2025 en r\u00e9gion Provence-Alpes-C\u00f4te d\u2019Azur, puis ajust\u00e9 pour refl\u00e9ter une capacit\u00e9 de charge des g\u00eetes moins que proportionnelle \u00e0 la densit\u00e9 de population, en particulier dans les zones urbaines denses.<\/p>\n
Les simulations projettent l\u2019\u00e9volution de la pr\u00e9sence du moustique tigre et du risque de dengue jusqu\u2019en 2085 selon deux grands sc\u00e9narios : un sc\u00e9nario de \u00ab forte pression \u00bb combinant des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre \u00e9lev\u00e9es (RCP8.5) et une forte croissance d\u00e9mographique fond\u00e9e sur les projections de l\u2019Insee ; et un sc\u00e9nario de \u00ab pression m\u00e9diane \u00bb associant des \u00e9missions interm\u00e9diaires (RCP4.5) et une stagnation d\u00e9mographique. Pour chaque sc\u00e9nario, trois mod\u00e8les climatiques r\u00e9gionaux (plus \u00ab froid \u00bb, \u00ab interm\u00e9diaire \u00bb ou \u00ab chaud \u00bb) sont utilis\u00e9s afin de repr\u00e9senter les incertitudes climatiques, sur trois p\u00e9riodes de projection : 2026-2045, 2046-2065 et 2066-2085. Les sorties du mod\u00e8le incluent notamment l\u2019ad\u00e9quation climatique pour le moustique et la densit\u00e9 de moustiques adultes. L\u2019\u00e9tude met ainsi \u00e0 disposition des \u00e9l\u00e9ments quantitatifs et spatialis\u00e9s susceptibles d\u2019\u00e9clairer la surveillance et l\u2019anticipation des risques de transmission autochtone de dengue en France, dans un cadre comparatif europ\u00e9en et en lien avec les \u00e9volutions climatiques et d\u00e9mographiques.\u00a0(contenu r\u00e9sum\u00e9 par l’IA)Lire la Suite<\/a>\u200b<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Une \u00e9tude scientifique publi\u00e9e dans la revue Global Change Biology analyse la progression du moustique tigre (Aedes albopictus) et du risque de dengue en France m\u00e9tropolitaine \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2085, en 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