Le Haut-commissariat \u00e0 la strat\u00e9gie et au plan (HCSP) a pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 le 17 septembre 2026 une contribution intitul\u00e9e \u00ab Repenser les solidarit\u00e9s dans une France vieillissante \u00bb, r\u00e9alis\u00e9e dans le cadre de son exercice prospectif \u00ab France 2035-2050 \u00bb. Ce travail analyse l\u2019impact des transformations d\u00e9mographiques sur l\u2019organisation de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 fran\u00e7aise et sur les besoins de services publics, en insistant sur la recomposition par \u00e2ge de la population plus que sur l\u2019\u00e9volution des effectifs totaux.<\/p>\n
Sur la base du sc\u00e9nario central de l\u2019Insee, la France compterait 69,7 millions d\u2019habitants en 2035. La part des moins de 15 ans diminuerait \u00e0 13,9 % (contre 16,6 % en 2025), tandis que la part des 75-84 ans augmenterait \u00e0 9 % (7,3 % en 2025) et celle des 85 ans et plus \u00e0 4,6 % (3,5 % en 2025). \u00c0 l\u2019horizon 2050, la population totale se situerait entre 66,4 et 71,7 millions d\u2019habitants selon le solde migratoire, avec une stabilisation dans l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se centrale. La r\u00e9partition par \u00e2ge continuerait \u00e0 se transformer, avec une part des moins de 15 ans autour de 13 % et une part des 85 ans et plus d\u00e9passant 6 %. Le HCSP souligne que cette \u00e9volution implique un renouvellement des besoins de services publics et une adaptation des territoires.<\/p>\n
Le HCSP met en \u00e9vidence de fortes disparit\u00e9s territoriales, notamment via un exemple portant sur les effectifs d\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8ves du premier degr\u00e9, qui diminueraient en moyenne de 15,2 % entre 2025 et 2035. Certains d\u00e9partements, notamment du nord-est et du centre, enregistreraient des baisses plus marqu\u00e9es (entre \u201319,5 % et \u201329,3 %), tandis que d\u2019autres, surtout dans l\u2019ouest et le sud, conna\u00eetraient des diminutions plus mod\u00e9r\u00e9es (entre \u20134,5 % et \u201311,5 %). Cette diff\u00e9renciation croissante des trajectoires locales conduit le HCSP \u00e0 recommander la mise en place d\u2019une planification territorialis\u00e9e des services publics, en particulier \u00e9ducatifs.<\/p>\n
Le travail a \u00e9t\u00e9 coordonn\u00e9 par la Direction de l\u2019\u00e9valuation, de la prospective et de la performance (DEPP) du minist\u00e8re, repr\u00e9sent\u00e9e par sa directrice Magda Tomasini, qui indique que l\u2019\u00e9chelon d\u00e9partemental a \u00e9t\u00e9 retenu compte tenu des variabilit\u00e9s infra-r\u00e9gionales. La publication pr\u00e9conise une planification anticipant \u00e0 la fois les besoins en infrastructures (\u00e9tablissements m\u00e9dico-sociaux, logements adapt\u00e9s, transports, services de proximit\u00e9) et les besoins en professionnels n\u00e9cessaires \u00e0 leur fonctionnement. Elle insiste \u00e9galement sur la prise en compte des conditions concr\u00e8tes d\u2019acc\u00e8s aux services publics et sur la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 d\u2019une strat\u00e9gie relative aux m\u00e9tiers du soin, de l\u2019accompagnement et de l\u2019encadrement, dans un contexte de vieillissement d\u00e9mographique et de recomposition des solidarit\u00e9s.\u00a0(contenu r\u00e9sum\u00e9 par l’IA)Lire la Suite<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Le Haut-commissariat \u00e0 la strat\u00e9gie et au plan (HCSP) a pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 le 17 septembre 2026 une contribution intitul\u00e9e \u00ab Repenser les solidarit\u00e9s dans une France vieillissante \u00bb, r\u00e9alis\u00e9e dans le 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