L\u2019Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) publie une nouvelle analyse portant sur le lien entre la consommation et l\u2019\u00e9pargne des m\u00e9nages et le risque de revenu tel qu\u2019ils le per\u00e7oivent, en soulignant que les mod\u00e8les macro\u00e9conomiques reposent le plus souvent sur des donn\u00e9es de revenu effectivement r\u00e9alis\u00e9es plut\u00f4t que sur les anticipations des m\u00e9nages. Le travail met en \u00e9vidence que les d\u00e9cisions de consommation et d\u2019\u00e9pargne d\u00e9pendent non seulement du revenu courant, mais aussi de l\u2019incertitude anticip\u00e9e sur l\u2019\u00e9volution future des revenus d\u2019emploi.<\/p>\n
L\u2019\u00e9tude insiste sur l\u2019\u00e9cart potentiel entre le risque de revenu mesur\u00e9 a posteriori par les \u00e9conomistes (\u00e0 partir de trajectoires de revenus observ\u00e9es) et le risque subjectif tel qu\u2019il est ressenti par les individus. Cet \u00e9cart est jug\u00e9 important pour comprendre les comportements de pr\u00e9caution, notamment l\u2019\u00e9pargne de pr\u00e9caution, et par ricochet la sensibilit\u00e9 de la consommation aux chocs \u00e9conomiques. Le document souligne que cette dimension est aujourd\u2019hui insuffisamment prise en compte dans la mod\u00e9lisation macro\u00e9conomique standard.<\/p>\n
L\u2019IFS, organisme de recherche sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9 dans l\u2019analyse des politiques publiques, met ainsi en avant la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 d\u2019int\u00e9grer davantage les perceptions de risque des m\u00e9nages dans les mod\u00e8les utilis\u00e9s pour \u00e9clairer les politiques \u00e9conomiques et sociales relatives \u00e0 l\u2019emploi, au revenu et \u00e0 la protection sociale. Cette approche est pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e comme pertinente pour \u00e9valuer les effets des r\u00e9formes du march\u00e9 du travail, de l\u2019assurance ch\u00f4mage ou des dispositifs de soutien au revenu, dans la mesure o\u00f9 ces politiques peuvent influer sur le niveau d\u2019incertitude ressenti par les travailleurs et donc sur leurs comportements de consommation et d\u2019\u00e9pargne. L\u2019analyse, de port\u00e9e g\u00e9n\u00e9rale et non limit\u00e9e \u00e0 un pays donn\u00e9, sugg\u00e8re un int\u00e9r\u00eat pour les administrations en charge du suivi des politiques de l\u2019emploi, des revenus du travail et de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique des m\u00e9nages, tout en rappelant que les r\u00e9sultats reposent sur la distinction entre donn\u00e9es observ\u00e9es et perceptions d\u00e9clar\u00e9es, ce qui introduit des marges d\u2019incertitude et des limites m\u00e9thodologiques. (contenu r\u00e9sum\u00e9 en fran\u00e7ais par l’IA) \u00a0Lire la Suite<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" L\u2019Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) publie une nouvelle analyse portant sur le lien entre la consommation et l\u2019\u00e9pargne des m\u00e9nages et le risque de revenu tel qu\u2019ils le per\u00e7oivent, en […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10418,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[231,227,226],"class_list":["post-18387","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-travail-emploi-et-formation-professionnelle","tag-ifs","tag-ia","tag-sources-etrangeres"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18387","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18387"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18387\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10418"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18387"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18387"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18387"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}