Le document pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 par le think tank am\u00e9ricain RAND d\u00e9crit une s\u00e9rie de jeux de sc\u00e9narios prospectifs visant \u00e0 analyser la mani\u00e8re dont les \u00c9tats et autres institutions pourraient se pr\u00e9parer et r\u00e9agir \u00e0 des \u00e9volutions majeures de l\u2019intelligence artificielle (IA) et de l\u2019intelligence artificielle g\u00e9n\u00e9rale (IAG). Ces exercices sont men\u00e9s via la plateforme Infinite Potential et s\u2019inscrivent dans un programme de recherche sur les risques globaux et \u00e9mergents, destin\u00e9 \u00e0 \u00e9clairer les d\u00e9cideurs publics et priv\u00e9s.<\/p>\n
Entre juin 2025 et f\u00e9vrier 2026, 26 jeux de sc\u00e9narios ont \u00e9t\u00e9 organis\u00e9s, chacun reposant sur une situation fictive mais jug\u00e9e plausible o\u00f9 les progr\u00e8s de l\u2019IAG d\u00e9passent les capacit\u00e9s de gouvernance existantes. Cinq grands types de sc\u00e9narios ont \u00e9t\u00e9 test\u00e9s : \u00ab Business and Civil Society \u00bb, \u00ab Cyber Surprise \u00bb, \u00ab European Energy \u00bb, \u00ab Geopolitics of Energy on the Korean Peninsula \u00bb et \u00ab Remote Control \u00bb. Les participants devaient proposer des r\u00e9ponses \u00e0 court terme et \u00e0 plus long terme face \u00e0 ces situations de rupture.<\/p>\n
L\u2019analyse r\u00e9alis\u00e9e par les auteurs synth\u00e9tise les observations issues de ces 26 jeux afin d\u2019identifier : les principaux probl\u00e8mes qui pourraient se poser dans un contexte de d\u00e9calage entre innovation et r\u00e9gulation, les capacit\u00e9s jug\u00e9es n\u00e9cessaires (institutionnelles, techniques, organisationnelles) pour y faire face, les \u00ab playbooks \u00bb (cadres d\u2019action) souhait\u00e9s pour g\u00e9rer la crise, ainsi que diverses recommandations formul\u00e9es par les participants. Les sc\u00e9narios envisagent notamment des situations de perte ou de fragilisation de la l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9 sociale, de la stabilit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique et du contr\u00f4le technique des syst\u00e8mes d\u2019IA et d\u2019IAG.<\/p>\n
Les r\u00e9sultats visent \u00e0 aider les responsables publics, les chercheurs, les dirigeants d\u2019entreprises et les organisations de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 civile \u00e0 comprendre les pr\u00e9paratifs \u00e0 engager en amont de tels \u00e9v\u00e9nements, les d\u00e9cisions qui pourraient devenir prioritaires une fois la crise d\u00e9clench\u00e9e, et les types de plans d\u2019action n\u00e9cessaires pour la traverser. Les enjeux recouvrent potentiellement des domaines touchant \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie, \u00e0 la coh\u00e9sion sociale, au fonctionnement des entreprises et de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 civile, avec des implications possibles pour les politiques de travail, d\u2019emploi et d\u2019organisation des syst\u00e8mes socio-\u00e9conomiques, m\u00eame si ces derni\u00e8res ne sont pas d\u00e9taill\u00e9es.<\/p>\n
Le rapport s\u2019inscrit dans la s\u00e9rie des \u00ab Research Reports \u00bb de RAND, institution de recherche \u00e0 but non lucratif sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9e dans l\u2019appui \u00e0 la d\u00e9cision publique et priv\u00e9e par l\u2019analyse. Les travaux font l\u2019objet d\u2019une revue par les pairs afin de garantir la qualit\u00e9 scientifique et l\u2019objectivit\u00e9. Il est pr\u00e9cis\u00e9 que les publications de RAND ne refl\u00e8tent pas n\u00e9cessairement les positions de ses commanditaires. Le document et les marques associ\u00e9es sont prot\u00e9g\u00e9s par le droit de la propri\u00e9t\u00e9 intellectuelle : leur usage est limit\u00e9 \u00e0 des fins non commerciales, et toute r\u00e9utilisation commerciale n\u00e9cessite une autorisation pr\u00e9alable de RAND.(contenu r\u00e9sum\u00e9 en fran\u00e7ais par l’IA)\u00a0Lire la Suite<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Le document pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 par le think tank am\u00e9ricain RAND d\u00e9crit une s\u00e9rie de jeux de sc\u00e9narios prospectifs visant \u00e0 analyser la mani\u00e8re dont les \u00c9tats et autres institutions pourraient se 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