Le document pr\u00e9sente les r\u00e9sultats d\u2019une s\u00e9rie de jeux de simulation men\u00e9s par la RAND Corporation entre juin 2025 et avril 2026, portant sur des campagnes d\u2019influence \u00e9trang\u00e8res s\u2019appuyant sur l\u2019intelligence artificielle (IA) et l\u2019intelligence artificielle g\u00e9n\u00e9rale (IAG). Ces exercices, d\u2019une dur\u00e9e de deux heures chacun, ont utilis\u00e9 la plateforme Infinite Potential et la m\u00e9thodologie \u00ab Day After AGI \u00bb appliqu\u00e9e \u00e0 des crises li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019IA et \u00e0 l\u2019IAG. Les participants \u2013 anciens responsables f\u00e9d\u00e9raux am\u00e9ricains, \u00e9tudiants en droit, universitaires et chercheurs de RAND \u2013 y jouaient le r\u00f4le de membres du National Security Council Principals Committee des \u00c9tats-Unis. Le sc\u00e9nario central simulait une campagne d\u2019op\u00e9rations d\u2019information men\u00e9e par la Chine, qui s\u2019intensifiait jusqu\u2019\u00e0 des attaques physiques contre des infrastructures d\u2019IA.<\/p>\n
Les travaux mettent en \u00e9vidence que les campagnes d\u2019influence hybrides, aliment\u00e9es par l\u2019IA, peuvent favoriser rapidement des troubles int\u00e9rieurs, un effondrement de la confiance publique et des violences, \u00e0 un rythme plus rapide que la capacit\u00e9 de r\u00e9action des autorit\u00e9s am\u00e9ricaines. Les outils classiques de r\u00e9ponse (diplomatiques, \u00e9conomiques, cyber) apparaissent potentiellement insuffisants pour contrer efficacement des op\u00e9rations d\u2019influence hybrides rapides et combinant plusieurs registres d\u2019action.<\/p>\n
Les r\u00e9sultats soulignent que la confiance du public dans l\u2019IA constitue d\u00e9sormais une variable de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale. Les r\u00e9cits adverses r\u00e9ussissent moins par leur force intrins\u00e8que que parce qu\u2019ils s\u2019adressent \u00e0 des populations d\u00e9j\u00e0 pr\u00e9dispos\u00e9es \u00e0 se m\u00e9fier des pouvoirs publics et des entreprises d\u2019IA. Cette d\u00e9fiance pr\u00e9alable favorise la diffusion et l\u2019impact des campagnes d\u2019influence, avec des implications possibles pour la coh\u00e9sion sociale et la stabilit\u00e9 d\u00e9mocratique.<\/p>\n
Les exercices montrent \u00e9galement que l\u2019attribution des campagnes hybrides est lente et difficile. La fronti\u00e8re floue entre mouvements de protestation, influence \u00e9trang\u00e8re, intrusions informatiques et attaques physiques complique la d\u00e9cision sur l\u2019auteur des actions et le choix de la r\u00e9ponse, dans des d\u00e9lais compatibles avec l\u2019urgence op\u00e9rationnelle. Cette lenteur d\u2019attribution limite la capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 contenir rapidement les effets des campagnes sur la soci\u00e9t\u00e9.<\/p>\n
Sur le plan institutionnel, les simulations mettent en lumi\u00e8re des lacunes importantes dans la coordination entre niveaux f\u00e9d\u00e9ral et infranationaux aux \u00c9tats-Unis. Les responsables locaux et des \u00c9tats f\u00e9d\u00e9r\u00e9s apparaissent en premi\u00e8re ligne face aux campagnes hybrides, sans toujours disposer d\u2019une communication claire avec les agences f\u00e9d\u00e9rales ni d\u2019une compr\u00e9hension suffisante des syst\u00e8mes techniques impliqu\u00e9s. Ces difficult\u00e9s de coordination peuvent retarder ou fragmenter la r\u00e9ponse publique.<\/p>\n
Les exercices soulignent enfin l\u2019importance d\u2019une coordination renforc\u00e9e entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et leurs alli\u00e9s pour l\u2019attribution et la r\u00e9ponse aux campagnes hybrides. Une action conjointe pourrait am\u00e9liorer l\u2019efficacit\u00e9 de la riposte, mais les m\u00e9canismes concrets de coordination internationale restent, \u00e0 ce stade, insuffisamment d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s.<\/p>\n
Les observations issues de ces sept jeux, consign\u00e9es au moyen d\u2019un protocole de prise de notes standardis\u00e9 et synth\u00e9tis\u00e9es a posteriori, servent \u00e0 d\u00e9gager des th\u00e8mes r\u00e9currents, des besoins capacitaires et des pistes de \u00ab playbooks \u00bb pour la gestion de crises similaires. Le rapport, publi\u00e9 en 2026 sous la r\u00e9f\u00e9rence RR-A4626-2 (DOI : 10.7249\/RRA4626-2), s\u2019inscrit dans la s\u00e9rie des rapports de recherche de RAND sur les risques globaux et \u00e9mergents. Ces travaux offrent des \u00e9l\u00e9ments de comparaison int\u00e9ressants pour les administrations \u00e9trang\u00e8res, notamment en mati\u00e8re de confiance dans l\u2019IA, de gestion de la d\u00e9sinformation, de coordination multi-niveaux et de coop\u00e9ration internationale face aux menaces hybrides ciblant les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s civiles et leurs infrastructures critiques.(contenu r\u00e9sum\u00e9 en fran\u00e7ais par l’IA)\u00a0Lire la Suite<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Le document pr\u00e9sente les r\u00e9sultats d\u2019une s\u00e9rie de jeux de simulation men\u00e9s par la RAND Corporation entre juin 2025 et avril 2026, portant sur des campagnes d\u2019influence \u00e9trang\u00e8res s\u2019appuyant sur 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