L\u2019Un\u00e9dic a actualis\u00e9 en octobre 2026 ses pr\u00e9visions financi\u00e8res pour l\u2019Assurance ch\u00f4mage \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2028. Ces projections int\u00e8grent les effets des pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements op\u00e9r\u00e9s ou annonc\u00e9s par l\u2019\u00c9tat sur le r\u00e9gime, malgr\u00e9 les alertes des organisations syndicales et patronales gestionnaires. En 2027, le pr\u00e9l\u00e8vement envisag\u00e9 de 2 Md\u20ac transformerait un solde pr\u00e9visionnel positif de +1,4 Md\u20ac en d\u00e9ficit de -0,6 Md\u20ac, conduisant \u00e0 un recours accru \u00e0 l\u2019endettement. Si ce pr\u00e9l\u00e8vement se confirmait, le montant total ponctionn\u00e9 par l\u2019\u00c9tat sur l\u2019Assurance ch\u00f4mage atteindrait 14 Md\u20ac depuis 2023, ce qui est pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 comme un transfert de charge de dette publique vers le r\u00e9gime au d\u00e9triment des salari\u00e9s et des entreprises.<\/p>\n
Sur le plan macro\u00e9conomique, la croissance serait limit\u00e9e \u00e0 +0,4 % fin 2026, avec une am\u00e9lioration mod\u00e9r\u00e9e en 2027 (+0,7 %) et 2028 (+1,1 %), dans un contexte d\u2019incertitudes conjoncturelles, notamment li\u00e9es aux prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie. L\u2019inflation, initialement anticip\u00e9e sous 2 % jusqu\u2019en 2028, serait finalement de +2,2 % en moyenne en 2026 et se maintiendrait \u00e0 +2,1 % en 2027, avant de repasser sous 2 % en 2028. L\u2019emploi salari\u00e9 priv\u00e9 reculerait encore en 2026 (-71 000 emplois) et 2027 (-60 000), avec une reprise attendue en 2028 (+92 000). Le nombre de ch\u00f4meurs indemnis\u00e9s se maintiendrait autour de 2,6 millions entre 2026 et 2028.<\/p>\n
Les recettes de l\u2019Assurance ch\u00f4mage atteindraient 44,3 Md\u20ac en 2026, puis augmenteraient \u00e0 49,4 Md\u20ac en 2027 et 50,9 Md\u20ac en 2028, sous r\u00e9serve de l\u2019absence de nouveaux pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements. Les d\u00e9penses s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8veraient \u00e0 46,6 Md\u20ac en 2026, puis \u00e0 48,1 Md\u20ac en 2027 et 48,5 Md\u20ac en 2028. Le solde du r\u00e9gime serait de -2,3 Md\u20ac en 2026 (en incluant un pr\u00e9l\u00e8vement de l\u2019\u00c9tat de 4,1 Md\u20ac), de +1,4 Md\u20ac en 2027 en l\u2019absence de nouveau pr\u00e9l\u00e8vement, et de -0,6 Md\u20ac si le pr\u00e9l\u00e8vement de 2 Md\u20ac \u00e9tait effectivement appliqu\u00e9. En 2028, le solde atteindrait +2,4 Md\u20ac.<\/p>\n
Concernant la dette, l\u2019Un\u00e9dic indique que, sans les pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements successifs de l\u2019\u00c9tat depuis 2023, l\u2019encours aurait pu s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 49,4 Md\u20ac fin 2026. Il devrait au contraire d\u00e9passer 61 Md\u20ac \u00e0 cette date, dont plus de 18 Md\u20ac au titre de la dette contract\u00e9e pendant la crise Covid-19, et pourrait atteindre 62 Md\u20ac en 2027 en cas de nouveau pr\u00e9l\u00e8vement de 2 Md\u20ac. L\u2019Un\u00e9dic devra par ailleurs faire face \u00e0 d\u2019importantes \u00e9ch\u00e9ances de remboursement de dette obligataire, principalement li\u00e9es \u00e0 la crise sanitaire, \u00e0 hauteur de 6,25 Md\u20ac en 2026, 5,25 Md\u20ac en 2027 et 7 Md\u20ac en 2028. Ces \u00e9l\u00e9ments soulignent les tensions financi\u00e8res pesant sur le r\u00e9gime d\u2019assurance ch\u00f4mage et le r\u00f4le d\u00e9terminant des d\u00e9cisions de pr\u00e9l\u00e8vement de l\u2019\u00c9tat dans l\u2019\u00e9volution de son solde et de son endettement.\u00a0(contenu r\u00e9sum\u00e9 par l’IA)\u200bLire la Suite<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" L\u2019Un\u00e9dic a actualis\u00e9 en octobre 2026 ses pr\u00e9visions financi\u00e8res pour l\u2019Assurance ch\u00f4mage \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2028. Ces projections int\u00e8grent les effets des pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements op\u00e9r\u00e9s ou annonc\u00e9s par l\u2019\u00c9tat sur le r\u00e9gime, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18818,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[227,277],"class_list":["post-21740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-emploi-chomage-et-insertion-professionnelle","tag-ia","tag-unedic"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21740","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=21740"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21740\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18818"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=21740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=21740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=21740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}