L\u2019Un\u00e9dic pr\u00e9sente des pr\u00e9visions d\u00e9grad\u00e9es pour l\u2019Assurance ch\u00f4mage dans un contexte d\u2019instabilit\u00e9 internationale, de tensions sur la dette fran\u00e7aise et de ralentissement \u00e9conomique. La croissance du PIB en France serait limit\u00e9e \u00e0 +0,4 % en 2026 et +0,7 % en 2027, avec une reprise encore incertaine et conditionn\u00e9e notamment \u00e0 une baisse des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie. L\u2019inflation repartirait \u00e0 la hausse en 2026, \u00e0 +2,2 %, aliment\u00e9e par les conflits au Moyen-Orient et en Ukraine. Sur le march\u00e9 du travail, l\u2019emploi salari\u00e9 reculerait avec des destructions nettes estim\u00e9es \u00e0 \u201371 000 en 2026 et \u201360 000 en 2027, avant un retour \u00e0 la cr\u00e9ation nette d\u2019emplois en 2028 (+92 000). Le taux de ch\u00f4mage augmenterait pour atteindre 8,6 % en 2026 puis 8,8 % en 2027 et 2028.<\/p>\n
Malgr\u00e9 cette d\u00e9gradation de l\u2019emploi, le nombre de ch\u00f4meurs indemnis\u00e9s resterait stable autour de 2,6 millions jusqu\u2019en 2028. Cette stabilit\u00e9 est attribu\u00e9e par l\u2019Un\u00e9dic aux \u00e9volutions r\u00e9glementaires affectant les conditions d\u2019indemnisation : r\u00e9forme de 2023, convention d\u2019assurance ch\u00f4mage 2024 et avenant de 2026 relatif aux ruptures conventionnelles individuelles, qui att\u00e9nuent les effets conjoncturels de la hausse du ch\u00f4mage sur le volume d\u2019allocataires.<\/p>\n
Sur le plan financier, les d\u00e9penses totales de l\u2019Un\u00e9dic augmenteraient, passant de 46,6 Md\u20ac en 2026 \u00e0 48,5 Md\u20ac en 2028. Les allocations progresseraient avec un effet retard\u00e9 de l\u2019inflation en 2027 et 2028. Les autres d\u00e9penses (hors allocations et aides) augmenteraient de 1 Md\u20ac entre fin 2025 et 2028, notamment en raison de la contribution de l\u2019Un\u00e9dic au budget de France Travail, fix\u00e9e \u00e0 11 % des recettes de l\u2019Un\u00e9dic de l\u2019ann\u00e9e n-2 avant pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements de l\u2019\u00c9tat. Cette contribution repr\u00e9senterait en pratique 11,6 % des recettes effectives 2026 (per\u00e7ues en 2024), puis 12 % en 2028.<\/p>\n
Les recettes de l\u2019Un\u00e9dic sont contraintes depuis 2023 par des pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements de l\u2019\u00c9tat. En 2026, la hausse de ces pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements, combin\u00e9e \u00e0 la r\u00e9forme de la CSG sur les travailleurs ind\u00e9pendants, entra\u00eenerait une baisse de plus de 1 Md\u20ac des recettes, \u00e0 44,3 Md\u20ac. Sous l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se d\u2019absence de nouveaux pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements, les recettes rebondiraient ensuite en 2027 et 2028, soutenues par la progression de la masse salariale.<\/p>\n
L\u2019\u00e9quilibre financier de l\u2019Assurance ch\u00f4mage resterait menac\u00e9. En 2026, le solde se d\u00e9graderait \u00e0 \u20132,3 Md\u20ac, alors qu\u2019il aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 nettement positif (+1,8 Md\u20ac) en l\u2019absence de pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements de l\u2019\u00c9tat. Toujours sans nouveaux pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements, le solde redeviendrait positif \u00e0 +1,4 Md\u20ac en 2027 et +2,4 Md\u20ac en 2028. Ces \u00e9l\u00e9ments soulignent les tensions persistantes sur la soutenabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re du r\u00e9gime d\u2019assurance ch\u00f4mage dans un environnement macro\u00e9conomique incertain.\u00a0(contenu r\u00e9sum\u00e9 par l’IA)\u200bLire la Suite<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" L\u2019Un\u00e9dic pr\u00e9sente des pr\u00e9visions d\u00e9grad\u00e9es pour l\u2019Assurance ch\u00f4mage dans un contexte d\u2019instabilit\u00e9 internationale, de tensions sur la dette fran\u00e7aise et de ralentissement \u00e9conomique. La croissance du PIB en France serait […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18818,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[227,277],"class_list":["post-22254","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-donnees-sante-social-travail","tag-ia","tag-unedic"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22254","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=22254"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22254\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18818"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=22254"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=22254"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=22254"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}