{"id":6244,"date":"2026-06-08T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-08T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php\/2026\/06\/08\/projections-de-population-a-lhorizon-2070-une-population-plus-agee-quen-2026-et-probablement-moins-nombreuse\/"},"modified":"2026-06-08T09:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T09:00:00","slug":"projections-de-population-a-lhorizon-2070-une-population-plus-agee-quen-2026-et-probablement-moins-nombreuse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/?p=6244","title":{"rendered":"Projections de population \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2070 : une population plus \u00e2g\u00e9e qu\u2019en 2026, et probablement moins nombreuse"},"content":{"rendered":"

En 2070, si les tendances d\u00e9mographiques r\u00e9centes se prolongeaient, la France compterait 65,9 millions d\u2019habitants, soit 3,2 millions de moins qu\u2019en 2026. La population augmenterait l\u00e9g\u00e8rement jusqu\u2019en 2037 pour atteindre 69,8 millions d\u2019habitants. Cette croissance d\u00e9mographique tiendrait exclusivement au solde migratoire, le solde naturel devenant n\u00e9gatif \u00e0 partir de 2025. \u00c0 partir de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2037, le solde migratoire ne compenserait plus le d\u00e9ficit naturel et la population commencerait donc \u00e0 diminuer.D\u2019ici 2070, le nombre d\u2019habitants de moins de 45 ans baisserait de 8,9 millions, tandis que celui des personnes \u00e2g\u00e9es de 45 \u00e0 64 ans serait quasi stable et que celui de 65 ans ou plus augmenterait de 5,8 millions. La hausse du nombre de personnes \u00e2g\u00e9es serait essentiellement port\u00e9e par celle des 80 ans ou plus (+4,6 millions) ; le nombre de centenaires pourrait \u00eatre multipli\u00e9 par 4.En 2040, il y aurait 49 personnes de 65 ans ou plus pour 100 personnes de 20 \u00e0 64 ans, contre 40 en 2026. Entre 2040 et 2070, l\u2019\u00e9volution de ce rapport de d\u00e9pendance d\u00e9mographique est plus incertaine ; selon le sc\u00e9nario central, il s\u2019\u00e9tablirait \u00e0 62 pour 100.Le vieillissement de la population est certain, mais la d\u00e9crue de la population totale n\u2019est que probable : \u00e0 horizon 2070, il y aurait entre 61 \u00e0 71 millions de personnes en France, selon que l\u2019on abaisse ou \u00e9l\u00e8ve l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 ou de solde migratoire.\u200bLire la Suite<\/a>\u200bPublications nationales<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

En 2070, si les tendances d\u00e9mographiques r\u00e9centes se prolongeaient, la France compterait 65,9 millions d\u2019habitants, soit 3,2 millions de moins qu\u2019en 2026. La population augmenterait l\u00e9g\u00e8rement jusqu\u2019en 2037 pour atteindre […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4197,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[81],"class_list":["post-6244","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-donnees-sante-social-travail","tag-insee"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6244","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6244"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6244\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/4197"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6244"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6244"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veilles-affaires-sociales.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6244"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}