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Many businesses are looking to hire, and myths about people who have criminal convictions can prevent hiring managers from tapping a big pool of productive, trustworthy workers.
When you learn the facts about hiring people who have been convicted of a crime, you can base business decisions on fact, not myth.
RAND research is crystal clear: The vast majority of people who have been convicted of a crime don’t reoffend.
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Myth
“A job candidate who doesn’t have a criminal conviction is always less likely to get in trouble again than a job candidate who has a criminal conviction in their past.”
Fact
The probability of a person being convicted of another crime falls fast, soon resembling the probability of those with no criminal history.
Time since last conviction (years) and reconviction rate for someone with a first-conviction misdemeanor at age 22 (percentage)
- One year: 3%
- Two years: 2.5%
- Three years: 3%
- Four years: 2.2%
- Five years: 2%
- Six years: 1.8%
- Seven years: 1.7%
- Eight years: 1.6%
- Nine years: 1.6%
The statistical probability that a 30-year-old person with a criminal history who has gone eight years without receiving a new conviction will reoffend in the next year is lower than the probability that a 20-year-old person will be convicted of a crime for the first time.
(Among people with no prior convictions, 2 percent are likely to be convicted of a crime in the next year.)
Pop Quiz
For the following job candidates, what is the probability of receiving a conviction within a year of being hired? Fill in the blank:
- A 20-year-old with no convictions: ____ percent
- A 25-year-old with one misdemeanor at age 18: ____ percent
- A 30-year-old with one felony and one misdemeanor charge
at age 22: ____ percent - A 35-year-old with a felony (resulting in a six-month
incarceration) at age 30: ____ percent
(ANSWER: Trick question! For each of these candidates, the probability
of receiving a conviction is roughly the same and is quite low: 2.2 percent.)
Okay, but how do I select good workers who have past convictions?
Just remember TAPP. It’s your guide to choosing workers who are most likely to avoid crime.
- T – Time since last conviction: The probability of reoffending declines rapidly with the amount of time the person has spent in society.
- A – Age: The likelihood of one’s involvement with crime declines after age 20.
- P – Prior convictions: How many? People with fewer convictions are more likely to avoid crime.
- P – Programs: Completion of vocational or educational programs is a signal that a person has changed.
Available for Download
Topics
- Copyright: RAND Corporation
- Availability: Web-Only
- Year: 2026
- Pages: 1
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RBA1360-2
- Document Number: RB-A1360-2
RAND Style Manual
Having Trouble Finding Good Workers? They’re Right Under Your Nose, RAND Corporation, RB-A1360-2, 2026. As of August 4, 2026: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RBA1360-2.html
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